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Showing 51–59 of 59 mentions
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Y Hacker News 1w neutral peopleSpecial Projects (2016)That’s just hindsight. People work on a lot of different things. Breakthoughs and cumulative improvements reaching a tipping point might happen or not. That’s just hindsight. People work on a lot of different things. Breakthoughs and cumulative improvements reaching a tipping point might happen or not.view source ↗
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Y Hacker News 1w neutralRails World 2026 Opening Keynote [video]Smart. Bravo. Buddy of mine pivoted to doing just SQL and road into retirement as a DBA. With hindsight, we both wished we had gone all-in on SQL way back when. Smart. Bravo. Buddy of mine pivoted to doing just SQL and road into retirement as a DBA. With hindsight, we both wished we had gone all-in on SQL way back when.view source ↗
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Y Hacker News 1w neutral yearsShow HN: How long do I need to work at my salary before I can coast, or retire?You are right of course.... but one's risk tolerance diminishes with waning work income. So retired folks have less of their money in stocks/ETFs and are more exposed to the ravages of inflation. So with hindsight, one can easily weather inflation... only hindsight is hard to come by (says the guy who cancelled his NVI… You are right of course.... but one's risk tolerance diminishes with waning work income. So retired folks have less of their money in stocks/ETFs and are more exposed to the ravages of inflation. So with hindsight, one can easily weather inflation... only hindsight is hard to come by (says the guy who cancelled his NVIDIA buy order a few years back)!view source ↗
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Y Hacker News 1w neutral yearsHow did AMD Ryzen get 50% faster in two years?Hindsight remains 20/20, though. Hindsight remains 20/20, though.view source ↗
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Y Hacker News 1w neutralDear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGIThis is an article from 2022, where Gary Marcus made the following predictions and was willing to bet 100 thousand dollars on them: Here are five predictions, arranged from easiest for most humans to those that would require a high degree of expertise: 1. In 2029, AI will not be able to watch a movie and tell you accur… This is an article from 2022, where Gary Marcus made the following predictions and was willing to bet 100 thousand dollars on them: Here are five predictions, arranged from easiest for most humans to those that would require a high degree of expertise: 1. In 2029, AI will not be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on (what I called the comprehension challenge in The New Yorker, in 2014). Who are the characters? What are their conflicts and motivations? etc. 2. In 2029, AI will not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about plot, character, conflicts, motivations, etc. Key will be going beyond the literal text, as Davis and I explain in Rebooting AI. 3. In 2029, AI will not be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen (extending Steve Wozniak’s cup of coffee benchmark). 4. In 2029, AI will not be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines from natural language specification or by interactions with a non-expert user. [Gluing together code from existing libraries doesn’t count.] 5. In 2029, AI will not be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature written in natural language and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for symbolic verification. In the hindsight, it is interesting to see just how much the field was underestimated. But back then, I'd probably be a Marcus-level skeptic too. (I didn't give the idea enough thought in 2024, so I cannot say precisely.)view source ↗
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Y Hacker News 1w neutralThe Advisory Group on Mathematics and Artificial IntelligenceAnd why have the Nobel Prize winners been silent (or taken post-Nobel bets contrary to the current consensus ie Hinton-Hassabis)? Taking GP at his word, I'd be more terrified if Oai had identified one hundred NEW open problems.. In contrast with Fields Medallists, some Nobelists get the prize for something they'd event… And why have the Nobel Prize winners been silent (or taken post-Nobel bets contrary to the current consensus ie Hinton-Hassabis)? Taking GP at his word, I'd be more terrified if Oai had identified one hundred NEW open problems.. In contrast with Fields Medallists, some Nobelists get the prize for something they'd eventually NOT be (in)famous for. Like Josephson. In hindsight, will it be because they found out, as young unknowns, how to explore underappreciated avenues without millions in dedicated funds (uh encouragement).. ?? GP, did you? Get the prize for the question you are most proud of.view source ↗
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Y Hacker News 1w neutralNASA’s Mars Sample Return mission is deadPresident Nixon cancelled NASA manned deep space exploration programs due to rising costs from the Space Shuttle program and the Vietnam War. It wasn't politically sustainable to keep funding everything. With the benefit of hindsight one could argue that we should have withdrawn sooner from Vietnam and cancelled the Sp… President Nixon cancelled NASA manned deep space exploration programs due to rising costs from the Space Shuttle program and the Vietnam War. It wasn't politically sustainable to keep funding everything. With the benefit of hindsight one could argue that we should have withdrawn sooner from Vietnam and cancelled the Space Shuttle program.view source ↗
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Y Hacker News 1w neutral timeTelling a Computer to Do ThingsThe more I learn about shell, the less I reach for it for automation scripts, even ones that mainly exist just to shell out to other binaries. I have written a lot of shell in my life, and it turns out (with 20/20 hindsight) that almost all of it was atrociously dangerous and brittle because there are so many ways to s… The more I learn about shell, the less I reach for it for automation scripts, even ones that mainly exist just to shell out to other binaries. I have written a lot of shell in my life, and it turns out (with 20/20 hindsight) that almost all of it was atrociously dangerous and brittle because there are so many ways to screw it up and I didn't know most of them at the time (and still probably don't!).view source ↗
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Y Hacker News 1w neutral yearsThe LLMentalist Effect (2023)If that’s your standard for what counts as prediction, Asimov beat him to it by seventy-ish years. EDIT: > Scott made comments on a specific emerging technology He was speculating on what would happen if one gave GPT-2 “near-infinite training data and compute.” It’s a thought experiment, not a prediction. Near-infinite… If that’s your standard for what counts as prediction, Asimov beat him to it by seventy-ish years. EDIT: > Scott made comments on a specific emerging technology He was speculating on what would happen if one gave GPT-2 “near-infinite training data and compute.” It’s a thought experiment, not a prediction. Near-infinite amounts of anything is a fantasy. I acknowledge that he has predicted some things in a falsifiable way and turned out correct, but this isn’t one of them. You’re reading hindsight into the text.view source ↗